Will the CRS score decrease in 2024?

Compared to many prior years, 2023 was a historic year for Canadian immigration, with some new laws, regulations, and initiatives.

Nonetheless, the significance of Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores in the immigration processes of Express Entry candidates is among the most persistent recurring themes. Several people are questioning whether the Express Entry draws from last year will include more applicants with above-average CRS scores (which may reach 791 in certain situations).

What can 2024 hold for us?

The short answer is that it's hard to say how CRS scores will behave in 2024. This is the case for several reasons, including that CRS scores are primarily based on the composition of the Express Entry pool year-round. More specifically, this will affect not only the minimum CRS scores required for a draw but also the draw size if the distribution of CRS scores varies during the year.

The implementation of category-based draws in 2023 is a significant additional aspect that complicates the prediction of CRS scores in 2024. These are targeted draws based on Express Entry categories representing Canada's labour market and demographic requirements. These categories are as follows:

1. Jobs in healthcare;
2. STEM professions;
3. Trade-related professions;
4. Jobs in transportation;
5. Jobs in agriculture and agri-food, and
6. Proficiency in French.

Candidates who fall into these categories, regardless of relatively lower CRS scores (which makes predicting future cut-off scores even more difficult), can frequently receive invitations to apply (ITAs) for permanent residence because these categories reflect targeted groups that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has identified as important for immigration. Even so, most applicants stand to gain by optimising their CRS score before obtaining an ITA through one of these category-based lotteries.

The final important thing to consider is whether Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates will be included in the Express Entry drawings. Through Express Entry-aligned PNP streams, these candidates are nominated provincially, and as a result, they obtain an additional 600 CRS points, further distorting the overall cut-off scores.

The CRS ratings for general, PNP, and category-based draws will be tracked and graphed throughout 2023 in the following portions of this article. Express Entry draw dates are provided in the following format: "dd/mm/yy".

Draws for all programs, general

Candidates from the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), and Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP) are taken into consideration for all programs. This was the typical Express Entry draw procedure before the implementation of category-based draws in 2023, where candidates were chosen only based on their positions in the CRS score.

19 all-program draws produced 76,700 ITAs throughout the year, with the highest CRS score cut-off at 561 points and the lowest at 481 points.

1. Draws PNP: In 2023, 4,396 ITAs were awarded to candidates based on five PNP draws. This group's lowest and highest CRS score cut-offs were 691 and 791, respectively.

2. Jobs in healthcare: Applicants with prior experience in the Express Entry pool in healthcare-related fields, such as nursing, medicine, physician, and many other job titles, were classified as having a healthcare occupation. Three healthcare drawings were held in 2023, totalling 5,600 ITAs. The highest CRS score for this group was 476, while the lowest was 431.

3. STEM careers: Candidates with experience in these four related fields—civil engineering, software development, maths, and maths—were included in the Express Entry pool for jobs in the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) category. Two healthcare drawings in 2023 yielded 6,400 ITAs.

4. Trade-related jobs: Candidates having experience in trade jobs included machine fitters, plumbers, electricians, carpenters, and more. 2,500 ITAs were awarded to candidates in two transport-related Express Entry drawings in 2023.

5. Transportation jobs: In the transport industry, candidates with prior experience working as managers, air traffic controllers, aircraft assemblers, or transport truck drivers are given preference. In 2023, 1,670 ITAs were awarded to candidates in two transport drawings.

6. Jobs in agriculture and agri-food: Candidates drawn to the agriculture and agri-food sectors have professional experience in areas such as farm supervisors, butchers, and agricultural service contractors. 1,000 ITAs were awarded to candidates in two draws in 2023 that were centred on agri-food and agriculture.

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